0 Area has not been reviewed yet

When SMBC get their A6 traffic flows wrong!!

This thread was submitted to SEMMMS / Hazel Grove & Poynton Bypass / A555 MAELR


When SMBC get their A6 traffic flows wrong!!
11th January 2013 at 10:41AM, Edit: 11th January 2013 at 10:43AM by iancook
The following is taken from an article covering the reports submitted to the Government that are still used to ascertain and model the impacts of new road building.


The reports state that when a new road is built, new traffic will divert onto it. Many people may make new trips they would otherwise not make, and will travel longer distances just because of the presence of the new road. This effect is known as ‘induced traffic’. By not forecasting traffic levels properly and not fully taking into account induced traffic, the benefits and costs of a new road will not be accurately calculated, which can lead to big mistakes being made with public money.’

Concerns for A6 from Expert studies

The most authoritative studies into induced traffic are the 1994 SACTRA report 'Trunk Roads and the Generation of Traffic', and the 2006 report 'Beyond Transport Infrastructure' by independent consultants for the Countryside Agency and CPRE.

SACTRA report 1994 - Trunk Roads and the Generation of Traffic

SACTRA was an independent panel of experts set up to advise the Department for Transport on the impacts of road building. Professor Phil Goodwin, one of the lead authors of the report, said:

"The average traffic flow on 151 improved roads was 10.4% higher than forecasts that omitted induced traffic and 16.4% higher than forecast on 85 alternative routes that improvements had been intended to relieve. In a dozen more detailed case studies the measured increase in traffic ranged from 9% to 44% in the short run and 20% to 178% in the longer run. This fitted in with other evidence on elasticitys and aggregate data."

The conclusion of the report was:

"An average road improvement, for which traffic growth due to all other factors is forecast correctly, will see an additional [i.e. induced] 10% of base traffic in the short term and 20% in the long term."

Should we now be expecting this to be the case for the A6/A555/SEMMMS/Airport Relief Roads?

The schemes researched included the infamous A34 Newbury Bypass which attracted mass protests in 1996. They also examined 10 other schemes built since the publication of the 1994 SACTRA report and used data supplied by the Highways Agency's own Post Opening Project Evaluation (POPE) studies.

In the case of Newbury, the report showed that traffic levels predicted for 2010 in Newbury were already reached by 2003 – and that traffic had increased by almost 50% in that period. New development around the road was partially to blame for the increases.

So are the 900 homes planned at BAE Woodford, and 1800 homes opposite Handforth Dean plus 1000’s in Wilmslow/Handforth being written into the traffic flow forecasts and how will these impact the situation….and we haven’t yet seen the proposals for the business growth at Hazel Grove, Woodford and Poynton Business Parks, that are mentioned as on-going road benefits in the SMBC business plan for the road ?

In the other case studies the report concluded that:

"Traffic growth on the routes considered was higher than forecast, sometimes quite dramatically so."

So will the Airport Relief Road really reduce traffic in the Grove or just make it worse????
0 Likes 0 Dislikes Reply Reply Quote Quote Report Report  
Re: When SMBC get their A6 traffic flows wrong!!
11th January 2013 at 11:10AM
It will actually make it worse Ian

It has long been identified that they have been using old statistics

0 Likes 0 Dislikes Reply Reply Quote Quote Report Report